Amundi urges diversification into real assets, gold, and currencies
Bonds may no longer be the reliable hedge pension portfolios have leaned on.
That is among the warnings in Amundi's 2026 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook, which says inflation and fiscal risks now challenge the traditional role of fixed income, and that traditional correlations may not hold.
The outlook, Amundi said, calls for a selective reallocation of risk rather than a defensive retreat.
It argued portfolios should center on carry, resilient earnings, pricing power, liquidity and diversification, plus growth stories linked to strategic autonomy, geopolitical realignment and AI deployment in the physical world.
As the firm sees correlations breaking down, it points to a greater role for real assets such as infrastructure and private debt, alongside gold, commodities and selected currencies.
Investors face tested central bank independence, more volatile inflation and growing concentration risks, said Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute.
The best portfolios "withstand different scenarios," she said, spread across currencies, real assets and gold, with disciplined bets on equity sectors and structural themes.
Amundi's central scenario projects a fragile de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices of around $80-90 per barrel by year-end, with a gradual repricing helping the global economy avoid a recession.
On that basis it trimmed most of its growth forecasts.
Amundi expects the US Federal Reserve and major emerging-market central banks to remain on hold, while the ECB, BoE and BoJ each hike once by year-end as central banks focus more on anchoring inflation expectations than on supporting the economy.
The firm warned of a downside scenario in which a failure in the Middle East deal or a sharp market correction in the AI sector triggers renewed inflation pressure and recession risk.
Its upside scenario envisages a clearer reopening of the Strait that drives disinflation, lifts confidence and broadens the AI cycle.
On equities, the firm said markets require greater selectivity across sectors and countries, arguing AI is no longer just a tech story as opportunities move along the value chain into energy, infrastructure, equipment, software, robotics and adopters.
Amundi favours flexibility in fixed income with a tilt towards Europe, inflation-linked bonds, and investment-grade credit with quality carry, and it expects the US dollar to underperform most currencies and extend its weakening trend over the longer term.
As AI shifts "from who can build the frontier to who can scale it," investing turns toward breadth across the value chain, said Vincent Mortier, group CIO of Amundi.
He added that it also means diversifying against technological, geopolitical and physical risks.
Amundi manages close to €2.4tn of assets as at 31 March.
