Most Canadians oppose Alberta leaving but many relate to its frustration, reports Leger poll
According to a Leger survey, 55 percent of Canadians say they understand why Alberta might want to separate from Canada—despite 62 percent saying they oppose such a move.
70 percent of Albertans said they understand the motivations behind Alberta’s potential independence.
Among supporters of separation in Alberta, 76 percent said they understand why the province might want to leave Canada.
The survey also found that only 26 percent of Canadians support Alberta becoming an independent country—12 percent “strongly” and 15 percent “somewhat.”
According to Leger, 62 percent are opposed, with 50 percent “strongly” opposed and 13 percent “somewhat” opposed. Another 11 percent said they “don’t know.”
In Alberta, 47 percent of respondents supported separation.
Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president for Eastern Canada at Leger, said the findings suggest “there's a level of empathy” for Albertans but added Canadians likely believe separation would have serious consequences.
As Dallaire explained, “If you're in B.C., it means the country will be split in half from your perspective. If one province leaves, then it may open up, you know, more discussion about, of course, Quebec possibly also wanting to do the same, or other provinces.”
Political affiliation influenced understanding of Alberta’s separatist sentiment: 77 percent of Conservative voters said they understand it, compared to 48 percent of Liberal supporters.
Men were more likely than women to relate to Alberta’s separatist views, at 63 percent versus 48 percent.
Premier Danielle Smith’s government introduced legislation earlier this month to ease the process for citizen-initiated referendums, including one on Alberta’s independence.
As reported by various outlets, Smith argued that those calling for separation “are not fringe voices.” While she said she does not support separation, Smith said she aims to negotiate a new deal with Prime Minister Mark Carney.
She cited frustrations including landlocked natural resources and oil and gas exports being sold almost exclusively to the US at a discounted rate.
Support for Alberta’s separation varied by region. According to Leger, 29 percent of Quebecers, 22 percent of Ontarians, and 14 percent of British Columbians supported separation.
Although the poll’s sample size in some provinces was small, support reached 30 percent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
By political party, 43 percent of Conservative supporters backed separation, compared to only 12 percent of Liberals.
Dallaire noted that the results reflect lingering dissatisfaction following the recent federal election. He said Albertans appear “very divided” on separation and indicated that support might not be firm.
“We see that there is significant support for at least trying to shake things up,” he said.
He added that while the level of support may not be firm yet, it shows “a clear indication that there's a potential for the movement to really gain a strong foothold in the province.”
He noted it’s something to watch closely, as it “could grow even stronger, depending on what happens next.”
