Alberta’s $334 billion pension question takes aim at CPP’s future

Premier Danielle Smith has proposed that Alberta could be entitled to as much as $334bn in CPP assets—more than half the total fund—if it withdraws from the national plan, as per a 2023 government-commissioned report.  

That estimate, widely disputed by economists and Canada’s chief actuary, underpins Smith’s push to replace the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) with a provincial alternative focused on lower costs and fewer federal constraints. 

The premier is already reshaping Alberta Investment Management Corp. (Aimco), one of Canada’s largest institutional managers.  

Over the past eight months, the entire board was dismissed, senior executives were replaced, and more than two dozen positions—including DEI-related roles—were eliminated, according to Bloomberg. 

Offices in Singapore and New York were shuttered, and management ended the use of BlackRock’s Aladdin system, which had raised technology and data costs under the previous leadership. 

Smith said she is “feeling more and more confidence that Aimco is returning to its original mandate from us,” with a renewed focus on cutting costs and generating “the highest returns.” 

The moves signal broader pension ambitions.  

Smith is pursuing what she calls a return to local control, asserting in a recent video that “Alberta’s biggest threat to our prosperity and growth has come from our own nation’s capital.”  

Her “Alberta Next” town hall series is being used to test support for an Alberta pension plan, while her public messaging criticizes the CPP’s “bloated” costs and what she described as “ideological decision-making.” 

Smith said she would personally support a provincial pension plan and noted, “If we do end up putting it to a vote... I’d vote yes... But it’s up to Albertans to decide.” 

As reported by Bloomberg, Smith has described the CPP as “badly managed,” “inefficient,” and biased against Alberta’s oil and gas sector.  

She said federal environmental objectives discriminate against Alberta’s economy and warned that if Ottawa continues “antagonizing Albertans” and restricting energy development, “you’re going to see that sentiment rise.” 

The Fraser Institute has argued that due to Alberta’s younger population, higher average income, and stronger employment levels, the province pays more into the CPP than it receives in benefits.  

Between 1981 and 2022, Albertans contributed 14.4 percent of total CPP premiums but received just 10 percent of payouts, amounting to a cumulative net transfer of $53.6bn, as reported by the institute. 

In a study published this year, the Fraser Institute projected that a typical Albertan earning the median income ($53,061 in 2025) could see retirement income increase to $454,741 under a provincial plan with private savings, assuming a 5.85 percent contribution rate.  

That represents a 71.6 percent gain over the $264,968 projected under CPP. Under an 8.21 percent contribution rate, total retirement income would rise to $329,640, or 24.4 percent higher than under CPP. 

The province’s 69.4 percent labour force participation rate—the highest in the country—bolsters its case for pension independence, according to Bloomberg.  

Smith has linked this economic strength to her call for greater provincial autonomy, noting Alberta was Canada’s second-largest contributor to GDP growth last year, after Ontario. 

Smith, who rose to prominence through Alberta’s Wildrose Party before leading the United Conservative Party, has advocated for reforms that include exiting the CPP, replacing federal policing contracts, and loosening Ottawa’s grip on provincial energy development. 

Some critics, however, have raised concerns about governance risk.  

Bob Baldwin, a former chair of the CPP Advisory Board, said political interference in pension operations can create “disturbance and uncertainty, both for plan members and for investors.” 

Aimco maintains that it operates independently.  

“Our primary focus is our fiduciary duty to our clients... To suggest otherwise is incorrect,” spokesperson Carolyn Quick said by email. 

Political science professor Duane Bratt told Bloomberg that the CPP debate is part of a broader separatist current. “Maybe we don’t get separatism, but we get this,” he said.  

Bratt added that Smith’s push “wouldn’t be happening if Pierre Poilievre was prime minister.”