Canada's immigration strategy may shift, with rising focus on temporary resident limits and sector needs
Immigration Minister Marc Miller is considering reducing the number of permanent residents allowed each year, as he prepares to announce the immigration targets in November, according to Financial Post.
He mentioned that reductions are now possible, citing declining job vacancies, rising unemployment, and affordability concerns as contributing factors.
Miller plans to spend the next two weeks discussing different options with cabinet. He emphasized that these options aim to ensure the immigration plan aligns with the economy and preserves the integrity of the immigration system, which is crucial.
Immigration plays a significant role in the Canadian economy, with newcomers making up more than one-third of the workforce in key industries such as accommodation, transportation, and professional services, according to Statistics Canada.
Canada’s aging population also contributes to its dependence on immigration.
In 2022, Canada set targets of 465,000 permanent residents for 2023, 485,000 for 2024, and 500,000 for 2025.
Last year, the target remained steady at 500,000 for 2026. Miller took over the immigration portfolio from Sean Fraser in August 2023, and said that several factors, including job scarcity and interest rates, have changed since last year.
The new plan will introduce a target for temporary residents, a shift from focusing only on permanent residents. Miller pointed out that stabilization of the immigration system was a key focus last year, but now there are sectoral needs, not just large-scale labour shortages.
Economists have mixed views on Miller’s upcoming decision. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce and some economists, including Rebekah Young from Bank of Nova Scotia, predict potential reductions in the targets.
On the other hand, Benjamin Tal from CIBC World Markets expects the number of permanent residents to remain steady at around 500,000, with an emphasis on limiting temporary residents.
Miller has already implemented caps on temporary residents, including restrictions on international students and temporary foreign workers. He said these adjustments were overdue, with the temporary resident space becoming “overheated.”
He reflected on his first year as immigration minister, stating that these changes were necessary to rebuild confidence in the immigration system.
Miller concluded by stating that while the immigration portfolio has been challenging, the government aims to do what is right for both Canada and the immigration system.
