Oil alliance adds 548,000 barrels daily while Canada and others push non-OPEC output higher
OPEC+ is intensifying its push to reclaim market share, with a 548,000-barrel-per-day production hike scheduled for August—its fourth straight monthly increase and the largest since it began unwinding voluntary cuts this year.
According to CNBC, eight oil-producing nations—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates—agreed to the higher-than-expected August increase in a short virtual meeting.
The group had initially planned a 411,000-barrel daily hike but accelerated the pace citing “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories.”
This output shift comes as global demand remains high and as supply from non-OPEC countries—including Canada, Brazil, and Guyana—continues to rise.
According to Andrew Botterill, partner for energy, resources and industrials at Deloitte Canada, “Post-COVID we saw a lot of economies kind of wake up and a lot of demand increases, and we saw all-time highs for production from the US.”
He added that Canada was also part of that trend.
As countries continued to invest in energy, he told BNN Bloomberg, “OPEC is trying to get their share back.”
The group had initially committed to incremental increases of 137,000 barrels per day until September 2026. However, beginning in May, they tripled the pace to 411,000 barrels daily and now have moved to an even larger increase for August.
According to Reuters, the eight-member subgroup began reversing 2.17 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts this spring and is expected to complete that rollback with a similar 550,000-barrel daily increase in September.
Despite the supply boost, oil prices have remained relatively stable.
As per BNN Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate crude traded above US$68 per barrel on Wednesday, while Brent crude was just above US$70.
Botterill said the August increase is unlikely to trigger a steep price drop but warned of downside risks later in the year if markets become oversupplied.
“We do have very robust demand around the globe,” Botterill said. “That’s the reason why we’re still talking about high US$60 oil right now.”
He added that OPEC’s strategy is aimed at maintaining long-term influence while meeting short-term revenue needs, noting they want to remain a significant part of the market and retain their ability to influence it.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said during the OPEC seminar that markets have been absorbing additional volumes without creating excess stock.
“Even with the increases for several months we haven’t seen a major buildup in inventories, which means the market needed those barrels,” he said, as reported by Reuters.
Bloomberg’s Joumanna Bercetche, reporting from Vienna, highlighted that OPEC+ saw an opening to boost volumes without triggering a strong price backlash.
She added that Saudi Aramco raised its crude oil price for Asia by US$1 per barrel following the announcement, which reflects confidence in regional demand.
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated the company holds 3 million barrels per day in spare capacity, which provides financial insulation.
“Every 1 million provides a cushion for a US$10 drop in the price of oil,” he said, according to Bloomberg.
The next OPEC+ meeting is set for August 3.
Bercetche said that the group is expected to weigh full restoration of earlier cuts and monitor whether members that previously exceeded quotas align with future targets.
