Danielle Smith cites lack of public appetite and unresolved asset estimates in pausing Alberta pension plan
Premier Danielle Smith says Alberta will not move forward with a referendum on a provincial pension plan at this time, citing insufficient public demand and ongoing uncertainty about the province’s share of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) assets.
According to remarks made at a press conference on Thursday, Smith said, “I’m not seeing that there’s an appetite to put it to the people at the moment.”
She added that she would only proceed if public sentiment shifted: “I have said that I would put it to the people if I saw evidence they wanted to vote on it (but) I’m not seeing that at the moment.”
Smith suggested that interest in a provincial plan has likely declined because of unresolved questions around the asset transfer.
As reported by Global News, she cited the lack of clarity on how much Alberta would receive if it exited the national pension system.
In December 2024, Canada’s chief actuary published a report challenging Alberta’s earlier estimate.
The Alberta government-commissioned report from 2023 suggested the province was owed more than 50 percent of CPP assets, or approximately $334bn.
However, as per the actuary’s findings, Alberta’s share would be capped at 25 percent, or about $135bn.
The report also agreed with a formula interpreted by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe, who told The Canadian Press in December that Alberta’s projected share had been significantly overestimated.
According to CityNews Toronto, Smith previously stated she was disappointed the actuary did not provide a clear number and had intended to follow up.
On Thursday, she confirmed there was still “no new information to report.”
Smith also addressed the issue in a September 13, 2024 CBC News article during an interview with Shaun Newman.
She said that if Ottawa returned a low estimate—around $93bn, based on a per capita calculation—it would significantly weaken the case for a separate pension plan.
“We wouldn’t be able to reduce your premiums, and we wouldn’t be able to increase your benefits,” she said, asking, “Is the juice worth the squeeze?”
As per the same article, Alberta believes it deserves over half of CPP’s assets, while the CPP Investment Board estimates Alberta’s share is closer to $100bn.
The chief actuary is expected to deliver a final estimate in fall 2025, though Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s office has not announced a specific date.
The idea of creating an Alberta-only pension plan was first proposed by the Fair Deal Panel formed by then-premier Jason Kenney in 2019.
According to Global News, the panel’s recommendation followed provincial dissatisfaction with the federal Liberal government.
Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) launched a $7.5m campaign in 2023 to promote the idea, including telephone town halls led by former finance minister Jim Dinning to gauge public opinion.
As per CBC News, the campaign was paused late last year after Smith acknowledged that Albertans wanted clarity on the potential asset transfer before making a decision.
Despite the pause, the idea still resonates with some UCP supporters.
At a party town hall in July 2024, Smith defended the delay and said critics undermined the proposal by questioning the $334bn estimate.
“Everybody looked at this and said, ‘Is that for real? Could Alberta really be overpaying that much?’” she said, adding, “We have to get the certainty from the federal government that that is going to be the asset transfer.”
Smith noted varying levels of public support: one-third of voters favour the plan, one-third oppose it, and the rest are undecided.
“I promise you, if we get those numbers in the fall, we will go back out again, and we will hear from Albertans about whether they want a referendum,” she said.
Alberta passed legislation in 2023 requiring a public vote before withdrawing from the CPP, while leaving it up to the government to decide whether to act on the result.
Smith’s government tabled additional legislation this week to lower the threshold for citizen-initiated referendums, reducing the required number of signatures from about 600,000 to nearly 180,000.
“If I’m misreading the public on that and they want to have an actual vote, then that’s another issue that can be put forward by citizen initiative,” Smith told reporters on May 1.
In response, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said Smith is keeping the proposal alive to appease some of her supporters.
As quoted by Global News, he stated, “If the pension plan is dead … why doesn’t the premier just say it’s dead?” and criticized her reluctance to abandon the proposal outright.
