The 2027 Refinancing Wall: What It Means for Credit Investors

The middle market is under mounting pressure. With elevated interest rates, persistent cost pressures, and increasingly selective capital markets, a growing number of companies across North America are navigating capital structures that no longer align with current operating conditions. For Canadian institutional investors, including pension plan professionals, institutional money managers, and benefits executives, understanding how this environment is reshaping the private credit landscape is increasingly important, as market dislocations can create both new risks and potential investment opportunities.

This white paper from Manulife | Comvest Credit Partners examines the structural dynamics defining today's opportunistic credit environment. From rising payment-in-kind (PIK) usage to an approaching refinancing wall expected between 2027 and 2029, the paper outlines why complexity is driving demand for flexible capital. It also explains how active managers, equipped with restructuring expertise and flexible mandates, may be positioned to navigate complex credit situations and provide flexible capital solutions.

Key Takeaways:

• Why the rise in "bad" PIK signals capital structures being extended rather than fundamentally resolved, and the implications for credit investors
• How the approaching 2027–2029 refinancing wave is generating complex restructuring needs beyond the reach of traditional direct lending
• Why extended private equity hold periods are sustaining demand for structured, bespoke capital solutions
• How opportunistic credit strategies combine debt and equity elements to offer downside protection alongside selective upside participation
• Why the structural drivers of opportunistic credit persist beyond the current market cycle

The case for opportunistic credit is both cyclical and structural. Download the white paper to understand the dynamics shaping today's private credit landscape — and the structural trends influencing today's opportunistic credit market.

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