Angus Reid poll finds 62% expect separatism to persist, with Alberta’s CPP share estimates ranging from $150 billion to $334 billion
Pension plan sponsors with Alberta members face unresolved questions over the province’s place in the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) regardless of today’s referendum result, with 62% of Albertans saying the separatist movement will never end.
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) survey of 1,010 Albertans, conducted October 13 to 15, also found 70% expect future provincial governments to have to deal with the issue.
Elections Alberta is hand-counting the separation question first, and the order setting the question states its result is not binding. Option 2 would start the legal process toward a later binding separation vote.
James Fu, national leader of Borden Ladner Gervais’ pensions and benefits group, said in June that a “no” would likely shelve the issue while a “yes” would force the provincial government’s hand. He advised employers to begin contingency planning through regular reviews with investment, legal and plan administration advisors.
Two exits, one asset question
Separation is distinct from a proposed Alberta Pension Plan (APP), under which the province would leave the CPP but remain in Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has said an APP vote cannot proceed until Alberta knows its share, and said earlier this year she “did not get a satisfactory answer on what the transfer value would be” from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
A 2023 provincially commissioned report by LifeWorks put Alberta’s share at 53% of CPP assets, or $334 billion by 2027. Economist Trevor Tombe estimates 20% to 25%, or $150 billion to $186 billion on this year’s figures, an interpretation broadly supported by Canada’s chief actuary.
The chief actuary has described the decades-old withdrawal formula as flawed, and work to determine Alberta’s share is ongoing, The Logic reported.
The base CPP account held $712.9 billion of CPP Investments’ $793.3 billion in net assets at March 31.
Employers will also see the base CPP contribution rate fall in 2027. Bill C-30, which received Royal Assent June 19, cuts employee and employer rates from 4.95% to 4.75% each, and total contributions are expected to fall by more than $3 billion a year across 16 million contributors.
Ottawa as the intended audience
Among those decided, leaning or already voted, 66% back Option 1, that Alberta “remain a province of Canada,” and 34% back Option 2. Among Option 2 supporters, 60% say sending a message to Ottawa matters more, “whether or not Alberta ultimately separates,” while 37% cite Alberta becoming a separate country.
Option 2 support reaches 42% in the rest of Alberta, compared with 33% in Calgary and 26% in Edmonton. It also draws 63% of 2023 UCP voters.
Other late polls also favored remaining, including Leger (74% to 21%), Ipsos (70% to 23%) and Abacus Data (68% to 24%).
Retirement income on the campaign trail
Separatist supporter Wendy Fitzpatrick told CBC News that pensions were the biggest concern she encountered among older Albertans while gathering petition signatures.
Gerard Kennedy, an associate professor of law at the University of Alberta, told CBC that residents of an independent Alberta would have no automatic entitlement to Canadian citizenship without Canada’s explicit consent.
CUPE Alberta has also campaigned against the APP proposal. Its president, Raj Uppal, called the push to leave the CPP “the biggest threat to our future” late last year, arguing a smaller Alberta fund would almost inevitably mean weaker performance.
Looking to the 2027 ballot
Smith has ruled out another separation vote if this one fails, “not as long as I’m premier.” Overall, 69% agree and 20% disagree, including 52% of UCP voters backing Option 2.
For the 2027 provincial election, 64% of Option 2 voters would “definitely support” (31%) or “consider” (33%) a separation-focused party, and 23% call it unlikely but possible. Among UCP Option 2 voters, the share is 67%, and 4% rule it out.
Three in five Albertans (61%) say Smith has handled separation and the referendum poorly, including 54% of UCP Option 1 voters and 17% of UCP Option 2 voters.
Sovereignty politics in Quebec
Quebec voters elected a Parti Québécois minority government on October 5, making leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon premier-designate.
The PQ has said it remains committed to an independence referendum in its first term, but not before January 20, 2029.
Ratings hold steady
Moody’s (Aa2), S&P Global (AA-) and Morningstar DBRS (AA) all maintain stable outlooks on Alberta.
An academic study reported by CBC News puts Alberta’s current borrowing premium over Canada at about 0.46 percentage points.
Elections Alberta anticipates turnout of 80% or more among nearly three million registered voters. ARI found 78% say their “mind was already made up” before the campaign, while 36% believe foreign interference had a major effect.
ARI’s self-commissioned online survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for a comparable probability sample.
