Labour groups want EI and work-sharing expanded before the layoffs start, not after
The 50 percent US tariffs that took effect Saturday put roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk, according to an analysis by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe.
Within weeks, plan sponsors and HR teams will be working through layoff planning, employment insurance access, and work-sharing arrangements.
Tombe's calculation, built from Statistics Canada input-output data, places about 52,000 jobs directly at risk in the affected export sectors and another 35,000 at risk among suppliers and service providers that sell into them.
Ontario carries the heaviest exposure at 36,100 jobs, followed by Quebec at 18,300 and British Columbia at 11,200.
Machinery, electronics, plastics, and rubber face the highest projected losses.
Alberta could shed roughly 9,000 jobs despite exporting a small share of the tariffed goods, because it hosts industries that support exporters.
"If we assume that these tariffs remain in place for some time," Americans will buy fewer of the tariffed items from Canadian producers, Tombe told CTV News.
He said that translates into less output in Canada and less employment at those exporting firms.
The indirect losses matter most for workforce planning because they land outside the tariffed sectors.
Trucking firms and bookkeeping providers that serve exporters are exposed without shipping anything south, Tombe told CBC News, and job losses in those sectors will mount over time. Interprovincial trade spreads the effect further.
Economist Colin Mang said interprovincial trade will carry the slowdown beyond the directly exposed regions.
Job losses will start to appear in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Maritimes as economic activity falls more broadly, he told CTV News.
The Canadian Labour Congress is pressing Ottawa for income support ahead of the layoffs rather than after them.
Bea Bruske of the Canadian Labour Congress told CTV News the government should shore up support for workers.
That means extending and increasing employment insurance, she said, alongside "expanding work-sharing opportunities so that workers can stay connected to the workplace" on reduced hours, backed by wage subsidies.
Federal supports already carry tariff-specific provisions.
Employment and Social Development Canada extended three temporary EI measures in March, waiving the one-week waiting period and providing up to 20 additional weeks of regular benefits for long-tenured workers, with the extension running to October 10, according to a department release.
Ottawa is separately investing $570m over three years through the Workforce Tariff Response, aimed at up to 66,000 workers in vulnerable industries.
Employer hesitancy is the near-term risk to headcount.
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic told CBC News that businesses are likely to pause investment and possibly hiring until the picture clears, describing the Canada-US relationship as broken for the foreseeable future.
BMO estimates the duties could shave half a percentage point off Canada's GDP growth, partly because the regime discourages new investment.
Smaller employers report the sharpest exposure.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business found that 40 percent of its members who export to the US make or sell something affected by the tariffs.
Among those owners, 35 percent expected revenue to fall by at least half, and 78 percent said the tariffs would make their products uncompetitive in the US market.
New Angus Reid Institute data shows 13 percent of Canadian workers are very concerned about losing their own job, with a further 25 percent reporting some level of anxiety.
US President Donald Trump threatened Monday to raise tariffs on all cars, trucks, automotive parts, and steel from Canada to 50 percent starting January 1, 2027, which would pull auto and steel workforces into the same exposure.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs by September 8.
