Pre-vote early ballots hit 43.1% of eligible voters, well above 2023
Albertans have voted decisively to stay in Canada, with preliminary results showing 76.4% backing “remain” and 23.6% favouring the start of a legal process toward a binding separation referendum. For advisors with Alberta-based clients, the result removes the immediate prospect of a formal separation process, though several political and policy questions on the same ballot remain unresolved.
The 10th and final question on Monday’s ballot asked whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the constitutional legal process needed to hold a binding referendum on separating. A vote for the second option would not, on its own, have taken Alberta out of Canada.
Early returns from advance and mail-in ballots showed roughly 80% support for remaining, out of more than 2.2 million valid votes cast, CTV News reported. Elections Alberta said it would announce the final tally for the question by 4 a.m. MT on Tuesday. In early counts, remaining led by 84.8% in Edmonton and 81.1% in Calgary.
The margin was wider than final pre-vote polling suggested. Angus Reid’s survey had 66% backing the “remain” option, and other recent polls ranged from roughly 65% to 74%.
Premier Danielle Smith, who urged voters to stay in Canada while campaigning for “yes” votes on the first nine questions, said in a social media post that she was “very pleased” with the early results, the Globe and Mail reported. Smith planned to address Albertans on Tuesday evening.
Turnout and the other nine questions
Elections Alberta said 43.1% of the province’s 3,148,343 eligible voters had cast ballots at advance polls or by mail before Monday, according to CP24. That compares with 27.5% in the 2023 provincial election. The 2021 referendum drew 39% turnout overall.
The first nine questions covered immigration and constitutional powers. Five asked about immigrants’ access to health care, education and citizenship, and four concerned Alberta’s constitutional and judicial authority. CTV reported that early results were split, with the immigration questions drawing slightly higher support than the constitutional ones. Official results are expected on Wednesday morning.
The government spent $4 million on advertising focused mostly on those nine questions, according to the Globe. Prime Minister Mark Carney had urged Albertans to vote “no” on them.
Reaction and what’s next
Separatist groups signalled the debate would continue. Keith Wilson, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, said before the result that “it’s going to keep going forward,” CTV reported. He said he hoped for constitutional reforms so Albertans feel they have proper democratic representation, and to address equalization. Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project had said a result above 40% for the separation side would put pressure on the government. The preliminary figure is well below that.
Thomas Lukaszuk, founder of the pro-Canada Forever Canadian group, had said he hoped a decisive result would head off another referendum, noting that the premier decides what counts as a win. Former premier Jason Kenney told CTV that hardline groups, including the Alberta Prosperity Project, are unlikely to stand down. He said the group plans to bring a motion to the United Conservative Party’s November convention to make the party officially separatist.
Business groups and economists had flagged the economic stakes. A Calgary Chamber of Commerce survey estimated Alberta’s economy could shrink by as much as $62 billion a year if the province separated. McMaster University economist Colin Mang told CTV that Alberta accounts for about 12% of Canada’s population but nearly 16% of national income, and that 32% of Alberta businesses sell to other provinces. Edmonton mayor Andrew Knack told CBC that potential investors had told him the vote made them nervous.
The figures are preliminary, and Elections Alberta has yet to confirm final results.
