Ottawa reports no formal negotiations while oil, gas and potash keep flowing south
The United States is in no hurry to strike a trade deal with Canada, US trade representative Jamieson Greer said Friday. The stance leaves a tariff dispute that has stirred Canadian markets without a clear end date.
Greer told CNBC that president Donald Trump is comfortable with the current situation as the two countries remain in a prolonged trade war, The Canadian Press reported.
Talks collapsed in August after prime minister Mark Carney pulled his negotiators from Washington. He said the Americans had introduced last-minute, unacceptable terms. The US has blamed Canada for the impasse. “We gave them a deal, they left,” Greer said.
In comments carried by Reuters, Greer said: “We’re still getting what we need from them in terms of oil, gas, potash, all of these things. We’re shipping (agricultural products) back and forth across the border, so there’s still a lot of strong trade between the two countries. We’re comfortable with where we are. … They call us now and then, and we have good conversations about potential deals. But it’s not – there’s no urgency on our side, I would say.”
Canada-US trade minister Dominic LeBlanc said Greer’s comments match his own conversations with the trade representative. They speak a few times a week, CBC News reported. A Canadian government official told The Globe and Mail that communications continue but no formal negotiations are under way.
Tariffs and trade flows
The US began collecting 50% duties on roughly C$28 billion of Canadian goods Aug. 22, The Globe and Mail reported. Canada matched them dollar for dollar the day after Labour Day. Both sit on top of earlier US levies on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.
Reuters reported that US import bans on Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products were due to take effect the following week. It also said Washington has threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January. Some experts told Reuters the administration may want a deal with Mexico first, which could give it more leverage with Canada.
Canada exported US$234 billion in goods to the US from January to July, according to US Census Bureau data. That compares with US$241 billion in the same period of 2024. Imports were US$205 billion in both years.
Energy and potash
In 2025, Canada supplied 63% of US crude oil imports and nearly 100% of natural gas imports, according to a May market snapshot cited by The Canadian Press.
Canada is the world’s largest potash producer, with about 39% of global exports. Potash is a potassium-rich mineral used mainly in fertilizer. About half of Canada’s exports went to the US in 2024, roughly 23 million tonnes.
Trump recently suggested he was working on a “massive deal” to buy cheaper potash from Belarus, which Canada has sanctioned over its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has since said he plans to keep buying from Canada.
Some Canadian political voices have urged Ottawa to use energy exports as leverage. Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said Americans would be sensitive to export taxes on fuel and potash. Carney has said he does not see the value of bringing energy to the table.
Jeff Nankivell, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told The Canadian Press such taxes “would affect Republicans who drive F-150s and lay fertilizer on their farm fields.” Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki called the approach a path to “mutually assured destruction.”
Market backdrop
Motley Fool Canada reported the TSX 60 Index was down 2.4% over 30 days as of Sept. 25. Canadian stocks did post their first weekly gain in a month.
In early September, TD Securities said USD/CAD had risen to its 2026 year-end forecast of 1.39, according to FXStreet. In an Aug. 25 report, Edward Jones said the TSX has gained more than 50% with dividends since 2025. The firm recommended diversified portfolios over headline-driven shifts.
Separately, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy told the Global Business Forum in Banff, Alta., that there is “zero chance” the US would contemplate a military incursion into Canada, The Canadian Press reported. Carney recently told the New York Times his government had studied the risk of US-led military action.
