The country counted 393,000 unfilled positions as payroll employment stayed flat
Canada's private sector job vacancy rate held at 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, leaving about 393,000 positions unfilled.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) said payroll employment stayed flat through the first quarter and is forecast to add 0.4 percent in the second and 0.3 percent in the third, pointing to modest labour market growth.
The steady jobs picture sits against a projected rebound in output.
After the economy contracted 0.1 percent in the first quarter on an annualized basis, CFIB and its forecasting partner AppEco expect GDP to grow 2.7 percent in the second quarter and 1.6 percent in the third, per the group's latest Main Street Quarterly.
Higher oil and gas prices are set to lift growth, according to Simon Gaudreault, CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, though he noted the same energy costs are raising expenses for smaller employers.
Inflation is climbing as growth returns.
CPI inflation rose to 3.1 percent year over year in the second quarter and is forecast to reach 3.4 percent in the third, the report found.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 1.7 percent in the second quarter but is expected to return to 2.0 percent by the third.
Investment intentions tell a weaker story.
Private investment is forecast to fall 6.3 percent in the second quarter and 4.7 percent in the third, CFIB reported, a contraction the federation tied to trade uncertainty as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) enters annual review.
Economic uncertainty is pushing small firms to scale back or delay investment, hiring and expansion, Gaudreault said.
That uncertainty deepened after the US administration declined to renew CUSMA at the July 1 review deadline, shifting the pact to yearly reviews until 2036.
About 35 percent of Canadian SMEs surveyed in early July said it was too soon to gauge the impact, according to the report, while 64 percent said Ottawa should take the time needed to reach a stronger deal rather than rush one.
Employers are also absorbing higher costs to replace and upgrade equipment.
Some 38 percent of SMEs flagged capital equipment and technology costs as a challenge in the second quarter, up from pre-pandemic levels, CFIB said, with 60 percent of transportation and utilities firms reporting the pressure.
A weaker loonie is compounding the strain: based on May import levels, the federation estimated a one-cent drop in the currency would add roughly $2.7bn a year to the cost of importing industrial and electrical machinery, equipment and parts.
Business formation, meanwhile, has turned negative.
Following recent Statistics Canada revisions, exits outpaced entries for a third straight quarter as of the third quarter of 2025, marking the first sustained stretch of net business losses since the pandemic.
Canada recorded 7,561 net exits that quarter.
Saskatchewan and Quebec were the only provinces near positive territory, the federation said, while health and education led sector gains.
CFIB represents 103,000 small and medium-sized member businesses across the country.
