New CPP Investments research finds trust doesn't guarantee capital
Global institutional investors rank Canada among the most trusted destinations for capital, but two new reports find trust alone will not guarantee investment. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's (CPP Investments) Insights Institute published the research on Tuesday, ahead of the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto next week.
The reports draw on a survey of 65 senior investment professionals across 20 countries, representing roughly $65 trillion in assets under management (AUM), or about one-third of estimated global AUM. Respondents included pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and asset managers across public and private markets.
Market opportunity leads allocation decisions
Market opportunity was the top driver of capital allocation, cited by 80% of respondents. Regulatory efficiency and predictability followed at 72%, and policy stability at 69%. Digital and AI infrastructure ranked as the strongest global investment theme at 65%, ahead of energy at 43% and technology and semiconductors at 42%.
"Global capital is looking for opportunity, but opportunity alone does not make a market investible," said Naomi Powell, director of the Insights Institute at CPP Investments. "Trust and predictable rules build confidence, but capital ultimately moves to opportunities with sufficient scale, profitable structures and a credible path to execution."
Among eight developed markets, Canada recorded the strongest investor retention profile in the CPP Investments survey: 94% of respondents said they expect to maintain or increase their Canadian exposure over the next three years, ahead of Japan at 82% and the United States at 77%.
A separate metric from the same research, reported independently by The Globe and Mail, found Canada ranked second only to Japan when investors were asked specifically about plans to increase – rather than simply maintain – their allocations. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they anticipate making moderate or significant increases in investment in Canada, according to the newspaper's review of the reports. The Globe and Mail coverage corroborates the reports' broader finding that Canada stands out for being associated with stability and performs well on perceptions of regulatory predictability and openness to global capital.
Gap between confidence and deployment
The reports frame Canada's challenge as converting investor confidence into deployed capital at scale. Canada ranks second to the United States for access to sophisticated local investment partners, according to the CPP Investments research, and its strengths in energy, natural resources and critical minerals align with global demand tied to AI infrastructure, electrification and advanced manufacturing.
"Canada has already earned something increasingly valuable: the trust of global investors," Powell said. "The opportunity now is to turn that confidence into profitable investments. Connecting Canada's strengths in energy, critical minerals and infrastructure to AI and other emerging themes can position the country for the next wave of global capital."
Independent trade coverage from The Canadian Vanguard framed the same tension, citing the "Competing for Capital" report's finding that trust alone does not move capital, distinct from the "Trusted, But Untapped" report's Canada-specific findings.
The reports identify clear project pipelines, predictable regulation, revenue certainty, effective risk-sharing and institutional-scale investment structures as the factors most likely to convert Canada's trust advantage into deployed capital. Leading barriers to investment cited by respondents included unattractive risk-adjusted returns, policy reversal and regulatory uncertainty.
